Endo Y, Tsilimigras DI, Munir MM, Woldesenbet S, Guglielmi A, Ratti F, Marques HP, Cauchy F, Lam V, Poultsides GA, Kitago M, Alexandrescu S, Popescu I, Martel G, Gleisner A, Hugh T, Aldrighetti L, Shen F, Endo I, Pawlik TM
BACKGROUND : We sought to assess the impact of various perioperative factors on the risk of severe complications and post-surgical mortality using a novel maching learning technique.
METHODS : Data on patients undergoing resection for HCC were obtained from an international, multi-institutional database between 2000 and 2020. Gradient boosted trees were utilized to construct predictive models.
RESULTS : Among 962 patients who underwent HCC resection, the incidence of severe postoperative complications was 12.7% (n = 122); in-hospital mortality was 2.9% (n = 28). Models that exclusively used preoperative data achieved AUC values of 0.89 (95%CI 0.85 to 0.92) and 0.90 (95%CI 0.84 to 0.96) to predict severe complications and mortality, respectively. Models that combined preoperative and postoperative data achieved AUC values of 0.93 (95%CI 0.91 to 0.96) and 0.92 (95%CI 0.86 to 0.97) for severe morbidity and mortality, respectively. The SHAP algorithm demonstrated that the factor most strongly predictive of severe morbidity and mortality was postoperative day 1 and 3 albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) scores.
CONCLUSION : Incorporation of perioperative data including ALBI scores using ML techniques can help risk-stratify patients undergoing resection of HCC.