Liu H, Diao YK, Wei F, Wang SY, Liang YJ, Wu YF, Zheng QX, Wang XM, Wang H, Li J, Chen TH, Wu XC, Gu WM, Zhou YH, Guo HW, Shao GZ, Xu JH, Yao LQ, Wang MD, Shen F, Pawlik TM, Lau WY, Lv GY, Yang T
BACKGROUND AND AIMS : The concept of textbook outcomes (TOs) has gained increased attention as a critical metric to assess the quality and success of outcomes following complex surgery. A simple yet effective scoring system was developed and validated to predict risk of not achieving textbook outcomes (non-TOs) following hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).
METHODS : Using a multicenter prospectively collected database, risk factors associated with non-TO among patients who underwent hepatectomy for HCC were identified. A predictive scoring system based on factors identified from multivariate regression analysis was used to risk stratify patients relative to non-TO. The score was developed using 70 % of the overall cohort and validated in the remaining 30 %.
RESULTS : Among 3681 patients, 1458 (39.6 %) failied to experience a TO. Based on the derivation cohort, obesity, American Society of Anaesthesiologists score(ASA score), Child-Pugh grade, tumor size, and extent of hepatectomy were identified as independent predictors of non-TO. The scoring system ranged from 0 to 10 points. Patients were categorized into low (0-3 points), intermediate (4-6 points), and high risk (7-10 points) of non-TO. In the validation cohort, the predicted risk of developing non-TOs was 39.0 %, which closely matched the observed risk of 39.9 %. There were no differences among the predicted and observed risks within the different risk categories.
CONCLUSIONS : A novel scoring system was able to predict risk of non-TO accurately following hepatectomy for HCC. The score may enable early identification of individuals at risk of adverse outcomes and inform surgical decision-making, and quality improvement initiatives.